KALSHI NFL PREDICTIONS
PRICED BY A MODEL, NOT A HUNCH.
Kalshi NFL markets quote a price between 1c and 99c for an outcome. QB1 Winning Edge builds its own probability for that same outcome and compares the two. When the model number and the market number disagree by enough to survive fees, that gap is the edge. This page explains exactly how that number is produced.
HOW QB1 PRICES AN NFL CONTRACT
Every team carries a walk-forward Elo rating rebuilt from real final scores. 25 Elo equals one point of spread, and ratings regress toward the mean between seasons so last year never overstates this year.
Each matchup runs 10,000 simulated trials to produce win, spread, total and push probabilities — not a single point estimate.
The Kalshi price is translated into an implied probability, then calibrated for market type and time remaining before expiry, because a price three weeks out behaves differently from a price at kickoff.
A weighted fair price blends the model, the calibrated market and sportsbook pricing. Edge is measured after transaction friction, so only opportunities that clear the minimum actionable threshold qualify.
QB1 separates the most likely winner from the best-priced contract. A team can be the correct pick and still be a bad buy at the posted price.
Entry zones, buy-zone flags, momentum and edge decay show when the modeled advantage is still available and when most of it has already been priced in.
THE FOUR TERMS THAT MATTER
- YES / NO CONTRACT
- A contract settling at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. A 62c price implies roughly a 62% chance before fees.
- IMPLIED PROBABILITY
- The probability the market price is quoting. Compare it to the model probability to see whether the price is rich or cheap.
- WINNING EDGE SCORE
- A 0-100 score combining modeled probability gap, price quality, confidence and market friction.
- PASS
- A valid, useful output. When nothing clears the bar, QB1 reports no qualified edge rather than manufacturing a trade.
WHY NFL ONLY
One league means deeper data and honest scales. QB1 covers preseason through the Super Bowl for all 32 teams, and a league goes live only when it has its own validated model. QB1 is analysis and tracking software: it does not connect to a Kalshi account, hold credentials, or place orders.