Kalshi NFL Picks This Week
2026 Preseason Wk 2: the full NFL slate with QB1's model probability beside the market-implied probability for the same outcome. Games are listed whether or not QB1 sees an opportunity, so the page shows the whole week rather than a curated highlight reel.
UPDATED Aug 17, 8:20 AM ET
Full Weekly Market Board
| NFL MARKET | MARKET PROB | QB1 PROB | DIFFERENCE | WINNING EDGE | QB1 SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans Thu, Aug 20 · 8:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: HOUSTON TEXANS | — | 78.6% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers Thu, Aug 20 · 10:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | — | 52.3% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers Fri, Aug 21 · 7:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: PITTSBURGH STEELERS | — | 69.8% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars Fri, Aug 21 · 7:30 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | — | 66.8% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos Fri, Aug 21 · 9:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: DENVER BRONCOS | — | 68.0% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions Sat, Aug 22 · 12:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: DETROIT LIONS | — | 62.7% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: BUFFALO BILLS | — | 60.5% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | — | 55.4% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: MINNESOTA VIKINGS | — | 56.1% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams Sat, Aug 22 · 4:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: LOS ANGELES RAMS | — | 72.5% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| New York Giants at Miami Dolphins Sat, Aug 22 · 4:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: MIAMI DOLPHINS | — | 56.3% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals Sat, Aug 22 · 7:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: CHICAGO BEARS | — | 54.1% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots Sat, Aug 22 · 7:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | — | 68.3% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sat, Aug 22 · 7:30 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS | — | 57.5% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals Sat, Aug 22 · 10:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: DALLAS COWBOYS | — | 51.4% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans Sun, Aug 23 · 8:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | — | 75.6% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
Highest QB1 Edge This Week
No stored Winning Edge Score is available for this week yet.
Where QB1 Disagrees Most With the Market
No stored market snapshot is available for comparison this week.
Line Movement to Watch
No meaningful stored line movement has been recorded this week.
Pro-Only Detail
- 🔒 ENTRY ZONE BY MARKET — QB1 PRO
- 🔒 TARGET EXIT — QB1 PRO
- 🔒 EDGE DECAY CURVE — QB1 PRO
- 🔒 QB1 MARKET RADAR — QB1 PRO
Related QB1 Pages
- Kalshi NFL picks today
- 2026 Preseason Wk 2 game-by-game predictions
- NFL prediction market report
- QB1 graded track record
Weekly Market Questions
How are NFL prediction markets different from sportsbooks?
A prediction market quotes a contract price between 1c and 99c that settles at $1 or $0, and you trade against other participants. A sportsbook quotes odds it sets itself and takes the other side. The practical difference for analysis is that a market price converts directly to a probability.
When should a prediction-market position be exited?
Generally when the price has moved far enough that most of the modeled difference is already reflected in it, or when new information invalidates the original reason. QB1 Pro publishes explicit target-exit levels inside the app.
How accurate are NFL prediction models?
Good NFL models are right on a clear majority of games but are wrong often enough that a single week says little. QB1 stores every pregame prediction with a timestamp and grades it against the final score on the track record page.