NFL Predictions, Market Probabilities & Winning Edge
QB1 Winning Edge analyzes NFL games and prediction-market pricing to find where the market-implied probability differs from QB1's independent model probability. Every number on this page comes from a stored model run and a stored market snapshot — nothing is estimated for presentation, and a difference in probability is an analytical observation, not a promise of profit.
UPDATED Aug 17, 8:20 AM ET
Current NFL Market Board
| NFL MARKET | MARKET PROB | QB1 PROB | DIFFERENCE | WINNING EDGE | QB1 SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans Thu, Aug 20 · 8:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: HOUSTON TEXANS | — | 78.6% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers Thu, Aug 20 · 10:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | — | 52.3% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers Fri, Aug 21 · 7:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: PITTSBURGH STEELERS | — | 69.8% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars Fri, Aug 21 · 7:30 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | — | 66.8% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos Fri, Aug 21 · 9:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: DENVER BRONCOS | — | 68.0% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions Sat, Aug 22 · 12:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: DETROIT LIONS | — | 62.7% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: BUFFALO BILLS | — | 60.5% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | — | 55.4% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: MINNESOTA VIKINGS | — | 56.1% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams Sat, Aug 22 · 4:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: LOS ANGELES RAMS | — | 72.5% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| New York Giants at Miami Dolphins Sat, Aug 22 · 4:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: MIAMI DOLPHINS | — | 56.3% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals Sat, Aug 22 · 7:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: CHICAGO BEARS | — | 54.1% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots Sat, Aug 22 · 7:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | — | 68.3% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sat, Aug 22 · 7:30 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS | — | 57.5% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals Sat, Aug 22 · 10:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: DALLAS COWBOYS | — | 51.4% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
| Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans Sun, Aug 23 · 8:00 PM ET · QB1 SIDE: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | — | 75.6% | — | — | AWAITING MODEL RUN CONFIDENCE LOW |
Explore QB1 NFL Coverage
- Kalshi NFL PredictionsHow QB1 prices NFL prediction-market contracts, plus the current market table.
- NFL Picks TodayToday's kickoffs ranked by QB1 edge and largest market disagreement.
- NFL Picks This WeekThe full weekly slate with QB1 signals and confidence.
- NFL GamesEvery upcoming matchup with its own crawlable prediction page.
- NFL Prediction MarketsWhat prediction markets are and how contract prices map to probability.
- NFL Market ReportLargest market moves, highest QB1 edge and games to watch.
- NFL TeamsTeam pages with upcoming games, model probabilities and recent signals.
- QB1 Track RecordLocked pregame predictions graded against final scores, wins and losses.
Futures, Awards, Win Totals & Player Markets
QB1's validated model currently covers game markets: winner, spread and total. Season-long NFL futures, award markets, team win totals and player markets are not yet modeled, so QB1 does not publish numbers for them. Those pages will go live only when the model that prices them has been validated — inventing a probability to fill a page would break the one rule QB1 will not bend. See the graded track record for what QB1 does publish.
Learn the Vocabulary
- How Kalshi NFL Markets WorkYES/NO contracts, settlement and what a cent price represents.
- Implied ProbabilityTurning prices and American odds into probabilities you can compare.
- Winning Edge ScoreHow the 0-100 QB1 rating is built and what each band means.
- QB1 MethodologyElo ratings, simulation, market blending, confidence and known limits.