How Kalshi NFL markets work

A Kalshi NFL market asks a yes-or-no question, such as “Will the Chiefs win this game?” You take one of two sides: YES or NO. Each contract settles at $1.00 if your side is correct and $0.00 if it is not.

Prices are probabilities

Prices run from about 1¢ to 99¢. A YES price of 62¢ means the market is pricing roughly a 62% chance the answer is yes. The NO side costs the remainder, about 38¢. That is the whole reason prediction markets are useful to a model like QB1: the price is already a probability, so it can be compared to a simulated probability directly.

What you can win and lose

Buying YES at 62¢ risks 62¢ to win 38¢ per contract — a 61% return if it settles yes, and a total loss of the 62¢ if it settles no. Cheaper prices pay more but win less often. Neither side is inherently better; the only question is whether the price is wrong.

Where QB1 fits

QB1 simulates each NFL game, produces its own win probability, then compares that to the market price. When the two disagree by enough to survive transaction costs, that gap is an edge. When they agree, the honest answer is PASS — and QB1 says so.

QB1 is analysis and tracking only. It does not connect to a Kalshi account and never places orders.