Kalshi NFL Markets & Prediction Market Probabilities
Prediction markets quote NFL games as contracts priced from 1¢ to 99¢. A price of 62¢ implies roughly a 62% chance the outcome happens. QB1 builds an independent probability from Elo power ratings and 10,000-trial simulations, then measures the gap between that probability and the quoted price. QB1 is independent and not affiliated with Kalshi.
How the math works
- Price to probability: a YES contract at 62¢ implies a 62% market probability; the matching NO side implies 38%.
- Edge: QB1's probability minus the market's implied probability, after transaction friction is subtracted.
- Buy low / sell high: an edge is only actionable inside an entry price zone, and it decays as kickoff approaches and information gets priced in.
- PASS is an answer: most games are priced fairly. QB1 says so rather than manufacturing a play.
This week's NFL market comparison
FULL WEEK →Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans
Thu, Aug 20 · 8:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- HOU
- WIN PROB
- 78.6%
- FAIR SPREAD
- HOU -11.7
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers
Thu, Aug 20 · 10:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- LAC
- WIN PROB
- 52.3%
- FAIR SPREAD
- LAC -0.7
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fri, Aug 21 · 7:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- PIT
- WIN PROB
- 69.8%
- FAIR SPREAD
- PIT -7.9
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fri, Aug 21 · 7:30 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- JAX
- WIN PROB
- 66.8%
- FAIR SPREAD
- JAX -7.8
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Fri, Aug 21 · 9:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- DEN
- WIN PROB
- 68.0%
- FAIR SPREAD
- DEN -6.7
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Sat, Aug 22 · 12:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- DET
- WIN PROB
- 62.7%
- FAIR SPREAD
- DET -4.9
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- BUF
- WIN PROB
- 60.5%
- FAIR SPREAD
- CLE +4.3
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- IND
- WIN PROB
- 55.4%
- FAIR SPREAD
- IND -2.0
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings
Sat, Aug 22 · 1:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- MIN
- WIN PROB
- 56.1%
- FAIR SPREAD
- MIN -2.1
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Sat, Aug 22 · 4:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- LAR
- WIN PROB
- 72.5%
- FAIR SPREAD
- LAR -8.5
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Sat, Aug 22 · 4:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- MIA
- WIN PROB
- 56.3%
- FAIR SPREAD
- MIA -2.2
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
Sat, Aug 22 · 7:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- CHI
- WIN PROB
- 54.1%
- FAIR SPREAD
- CIN +1.3
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Sat, Aug 22 · 7:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- NE
- WIN PROB
- 68.3%
- FAIR SPREAD
- NE -6.8
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sat, Aug 22 · 7:30 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- TB
- WIN PROB
- 57.5%
- FAIR SPREAD
- TB -2.6
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Sat, Aug 22 · 10:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- DAL
- WIN PROB
- 51.4%
- FAIR SPREAD
- ARI +0.8
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Sun, Aug 23 · 8:00 PM ET
- QB1 PICK
- SEA
- WIN PROB
- 75.6%
- FAIR SPREAD
- TEN +10.3
See calibrated market pricing
Members get calibrated market probability, fair price, entry zones, edge decay and BUY / WAIT / AVOID guidance for every NFL market.
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