What the QB1 Winning Edge Score measures

The Winning Edge Score is a 0–100 reading of the distance between QB1's simulated probability and the probability implied by market pricing, adjusted for how confident the model is in its own inputs. A high score means the price looks wrong. It does not mean the outcome is likely.

Most likely to win vs best value

These are different questions. A team can be 78% likely to win and still be a bad buy at 88¢. An underdog can be 34% likely to win and be an excellent buy at 22¢. QB1 always shows both: the projected winner with its win probability, and separately the value read.

How to read the bands

• High scores: the largest gap between model and market this week.
• Middle scores: a real but modest gap; position size should reflect that.
• Low scores: the market and the model agree. PASS is the correct answer.

What it does not do

The score is not a guarantee, a certainty rating, or a promise of profit. Correct process loses regularly in a single week; QB1 publishes its full graded record, losses included, so you can judge the model rather than trust it.