Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
2026 WEEK 1 · Mon, Sep 14 · 8:15 PM ET
UPDATED Aug 17, 8:20 PM ET
24EDGE
PASS
QB1 WINNING EDGE SCORE
KC is the more likely winner at 51.0%.
The score measures how far market pricing sits from QB1's probability — a high number means value, not certainty.
QB1 model projection
- DEN WIN PROB
- 49.0%
- KC WIN PROB
- 51.0%
- FAIR SPREAD
- KC -0.0
- FAIR TOTAL
- 42.8
- PROJECTED SCORE
- DEN 21.4 — KC 21.7
- CONFIDENCE
- low
MODEL v1.0-production · DATA CONFIDENCE 55
Market comparison
- MARKET SPREAD
- KC -2.5
- MARKET TOTAL
- 43
- DEN MONEYLINE
- +124
- KC MONEYLINE
- -158
Team power ratings
- DEN ELO
- 1615
- KC ELO
- 1452
Head-to-head history
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