2026 Week 1 NFL Predictions
Every Week 1 matchup with QB1's win probability, fair spread and Winning Edge Score. The pick shows the more likely winner; the Winning Edge Score shows where market pricing looks furthest from the model.
UPDATED Aug 17, 8:20 PM ET
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Wed, Sep 9 · 8:20 PM ET
9
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- SEA
- WIN PROB
- 60.8%
- FAIR SPREAD
- SEA -3.9
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Thu, Sep 10 · 8:35 PM ET
6
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- LAR
- WIN PROB
- 60.8%
- FAIR SPREAD
- LAR -3.8
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
18
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- HOU
- WIN PROB
- 53.0%
- FAIR SPREAD
- HOU -0.9
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
41
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- BAL
- WIN PROB
- 55.3%
- FAIR SPREAD
- IND +2.2
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
2
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- JAX
- WIN PROB
- 69.1%
- FAIR SPREAD
- JAX -7.6
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
2
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- TEN
- WIN PROB
- 57.9%
- FAIR SPREAD
- TEN -2.7
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
10
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- CHI
- WIN PROB
- 55.5%
- FAIR SPREAD
- CAR +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
7
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- CIN
- WIN PROB
- 58.7%
- FAIR SPREAD
- CIN -2.8
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
10
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- DET
- WIN PROB
- 67.0%
- FAIR SPREAD
- DET -6.0
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
0
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- PIT
- WIN PROB
- 58.2%
- FAIR SPREAD
- PIT -3.0
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
12
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- MIN
- WIN PROB
- 54.5%
- FAIR SPREAD
- MIN -1.8
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
3
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- PHI
- WIN PROB
- 63.2%
- FAIR SPREAD
- PHI -4.6
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
13
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- LAC
- WIN PROB
- 69.4%
- FAIR SPREAD
- LAC -9.1
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
19
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- LV
- WIN PROB
- 53.5%
- FAIR SPREAD
- LV -1.6
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Sun, Sep 13 · 8:20 PM ET
38
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- DAL
- WIN PROB
- 55.3%
- FAIR SPREAD
- NYG +1.5
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Mon, Sep 14 · 8:15 PM ET
24
PASS
- QB1 PICK
- KC
- WIN PROB
- 51.0%
- FAIR SPREAD
- KC -0.0